The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects 180,800 registered nurse job openings annually through 2035, driven by retirement replacement, growing chronic disease burden, and aging-population demand. NP employment is projected to grow 41% over the same decade – the fastest growth of any detailed occupation in the entire economy, healthcare or otherwise. These numbers are real, but they are national aggregates. Whether the labor market supports your specific decision – staying at your current level, advancing to NP, relocating to a higher-pay state, or specializing – depends on your specialty and geography in ways the headline figures don’t capture.
This guide gives you the framework to read the data for your situation, not just the industry average.
| Role | BLS projected growth (2025–2035) | Annual openings | National median salary (May 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Registered Nurse (RN) | 6% | ~180,800/yr | $97,550 |
| Nurse Practitioner (NP) | 41% | ~32,200/yr (combined APRN) | $132,300 |
| CRNA (Nurse Anesthetist) | 10% | ~32,200/yr (combined APRN) | $236,590 |
| CNM (Certified Nurse-Midwife) | 11% | ~32,200/yr (combined APRN) | $134,040 |
| LPN/LVN | 3% | ~51,800/yr | $64,400 |
Sources: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook (2025–2035 projections, released 27 August 2026), BLS OEWS May 2025 (wage data). BLS publishes a single combined annual-openings figure for the three advanced practice roles rather than breaking it out by role, so the same 32,200 applies across those three rows.
The RN growth rate is worth reading carefully. Six percent over a decade sounds modest against a 41% NP figure, but the two numbers answer different questions. Most of the 180,800 annual RN openings are replacement demand – nurses retiring or leaving the profession – rather than newly created positions. That is why the hiring volume a new graduate encounters looks nothing like a 6% growth rate would suggest.
Why the national shortage numbers need context
The headline shortage numbers circulating on nursing career sites are mostly one HRSA round out of date, and the current round tells a materially calmer story. HRSA’s Nurse Workforce Projections, 2023–2038 (December 2025) puts 2023 RN supply at 3,313,320 against demand of 3,369,610 – 98% adequacy, a gap of roughly 56,000 FTEs rather than the half-million figure still widely quoted. The shortage is projected to peak in 2027 and close nationally by 2035, leaving a 3% shortfall of about 108,960 FTE RNs at 2038. The American Nurses Association separately cites over 1 million nurses projected to retire in the next decade, with 50%+ of current RNs aged 50 or older, which is the structural pressure underneath those numbers.
None of that means every nursing job market is constrained. The shortage is geographic and specialty-specific, and the geographic split is where the real signal sits:
- Non-metro and rural areas carry the shortage almost entirely – HRSA projects an 11% rural shortfall at 2038
- Metro areas are projected at a 2% shortfall by 2038, close enough to balance that in some markets the constraint is pay rather than headcount – enough qualified nurses, too few willing to work for what urban hospital systems currently offer
- Long-term care and home health face the most acute shortages, tied to historically lower wages in those settings
- Hospital bedside nursing in major cities is tight but not as dire as rural primary care
The implication: a nurse deciding whether to relocate or stay put should be looking at regional data and specialty vacancy rates, not the national headline. A travel nurse moving toward staff positions is navigating a different market than an LPN considering an LPN-to-RN bridge program in rural Appalachia.
Where the growth is going – by specialty
The aggregate growth conceals meaningful variation in where the openings concentrate.
Fastest-growing NP specialties (2025–2030): Psychiatric mental health NP (PMHNP) demand is growing faster than any other advanced practice specialty. The U.S. mental health workforce shortage is severe – HRSA designated over 7,000 mental health professional shortage areas – and NPs are increasingly the primary provider in these settings. If PMHNP is your target, the labor market will support you.
Family NP (FNP) volume is highest, driven by primary care access gaps. Rural and underserved urban markets are strong. Competitive urban markets (Boston, New York, San Francisco) are crowded with new NP graduates from nearby programs.
Geriatric and home health NP demand is growing with the 65+ population but faces a wage challenge – many employers in those settings haven’t adjusted compensation to reflect NP market rates.
Acute care and hospital-based specialties: ACNP, CRNA, and NNP work in environments where demand is strong but supply is also increasing. The CRNA workforce has grown steadily, and the transition to all-DNP entry has slowed (but not stopped) new graduate supply temporarily. For the period 2025–2030, experienced CRNAs in independent-practice states remain in strong demand.
Staff RN specialties: ICU, OR, ED, and labor-and-delivery remain the most in-demand inpatient RN specialties in most markets. These are also the specialties that feed CRNA and acute care NP programs, so the pipeline into advanced practice depends on maintaining staff RN capability first.
Behavioral health RN roles – psychiatric nursing at the RN level – are in strong demand and chronically understaffed.
What the shortage means for salary and leverage
Nursing shortages translate to leverage – but the mechanism differs by specialty and employer type.
Travel nursing represents the clearest expression of labor market power. During peak shortage periods, travel RNs in ICU, ED, and OR cleared $100,000–$150,000+ annually. Rates have moderated from 2021–2022 peaks but remain well above pre-pandemic levels in most markets, particularly for specialty-certified nurses in tight-supply areas.
Sign-on bonuses have become standard in many rural and non-metro markets. Facilities competing for BSN nurses in areas without nearby nursing programs frequently offer $10,000–$30,000 sign-on commitments with 2–3 year retention agreements.
Specialty certification premiums are market-dependent. CCRN, CNOR, CEN, and other specialty certifications command differentials of $2,000–$8,000/yr at many employer systems that have formal pay-for-certification programs. In tight labor markets, certification is increasingly the differentiator between two otherwise equivalent applicants.
For context on pay premiums by specialty, see the nursing certifications guide.
The advance degree calculation in this market
The NP growth projection – 41% over a decade – is the strongest argument for considering advanced practice now rather than later. Two factors reinforce this:
First, NP program enrollment has grown substantially, and the number of new NP graduates entering the market is rising. The window in which new NP graduates face limited competition is narrowing, particularly in FNP in urban markets.
Second, full practice authority continues expanding. As of 2025, more than half of U.S. states have granted NPs full practice authority without required physician supervision. States that previously had restricted practice environments (Texas, California, Florida) are moving slowly toward expanded authority. NPs in full-practice states have materially better employment options, independent practice viability, and higher earning potential – factors that favor advancing sooner if your target state is mid-transition.
The investment case for advanced degrees is strongest for nurses who:
- Are 25–38 years old with a long earning horizon
- Currently work in a shortage specialty (psych, primary care, geriatrics) where NP practice authority would extend their impact
- Live in or can relocate to a full-practice authority state
- Have manageable current debt (below $50,000) before adding NP program costs
For a detailed cost-benefit analysis of the NP upgrade specifically, see is an online NP program worth it and family nurse practitioner salary.
Geographic arbitrage: should you relocate?
The salary spread by state is large enough to justify analysis. California RNs earn a median of $140,270/yr against a national median of $97,550 (BLS OEWS, May 2025). Texas RNs earn $95,970. A California RN earns roughly $44,300 more per year than a Texas RN – but California’s cost of living is substantially higher, particularly housing.
One caveat on any relocation math you have read elsewhere: the May 2025 wage release compressed the state spread sharply. Low-wage states moved far more than high-wage ones – Alabama’s median rose to $77,080 and South Dakota’s to $78,060, while California gained about 5%. The California-to-lowest-state gap is now roughly 82%, not the 2:1 ratio older guides quote. Relocation arbitrage is a weaker play than it was one vintage ago.
Adjusted for cost of living, the highest-value nursing markets in 2025 tend to be:
- States with strong union protections and nurse-to-patient ratio laws (California, New York, Massachusetts)
- States with low cost of living but above-median nursing wages (Texas, Tennessee, Georgia for high earners)
- States with significant rural shortage bonuses and housing cost offsets
Travel nursing offers a way to arbitrage geography without committing to relocation. A nurse who works 3–4 travel contracts per year in high-demand states can earn significantly more than a permanent staff position while maintaining geographic flexibility.
The relocation decision is worth running as a financial model: compare after-tax income net of housing and cost-of-living adjustments, not gross salary figures.
For best states for nurses and best states for travel nurses, those guides break down the state-level comparison in detail.
Signals that suggest staying put vs. advancing
Stay at your current RN level if:
- You’re within 5 years of retirement and the ROI of an advanced degree doesn’t pencil out
- You’re in a shortage specialty (ICU, OR, ED, labor-and-delivery) where your current wage is strong and travel opportunities are available
- You have significant current debt that would be materially worsened by adding NP program debt
- Your target employment market already has surplus NP supply (urban FNP markets in particular)
Consider advancing if:
- You’re in a primary care, psychiatric, or geriatric specialization where NP practice authority substantially expands what you can do and earn
- You work in a state transitioning toward full practice authority
- You have a clear specialty match with a strong shortage (PMHNP in particular)
- You’re 25–40 with enough career runway to recover the investment
Consider relocating if:
- Your current state wages are significantly below national median for your specialty
- A nearby state or region has active rural shortage bonuses or facility recruitment incentives
- Travel nursing makes geographic flexibility viable without committing to permanent relocation
What nurses get wrong about the shortage
The most common misread of nursing shortage data is treating it as an unconditional seller’s market. There are specific conditions where it is: rural areas, non-metro acute care, behavioral health, and primary care in underserved communities. There are conditions where it is not: new graduate positions in major metro markets, non-clinical or informatics roles, and LPN positions in regions where scope-of-practice changes have shifted employer demand toward RNs and NPs.
A useful heuristic: if a position has existed unfilled for more than 60 days in your specialty and region, that’s a real shortage indicator. If a position is competitive and closing quickly, you’re in a surplus segment for that role in that market.
The aggregate projection of 500,000+ nurse shortage by 2030 is meaningful for healthcare policy. For your individual decision – whether to invest in a DNP, take a travel contract, or move to rural Montana – the relevant data is local and specialty-specific.
Frequently asked questions
Is there a nursing shortage in 2026? Yes, though a smaller one than the half-million figure still circulating. HRSA’s Nurse Workforce Projections, 2023–2038 (December 2025) recorded 98% RN adequacy at the 2023 base year, project the shortage to peak in 2027, and expect national supply to meet demand by 2035, leaving a 3% shortfall of roughly 108,960 FTE RNs at 2038. Rural and non-metro areas carry almost all of that gap – an 11% projected shortfall at 2038 against 2% in metro areas – so the national headline understates rural conditions and overstates urban ones.
How fast is NP job growth projected through 2035? The BLS projects 41% employment growth for nurse practitioners from 2025 to 2035 – the fastest growth of any detailed occupation in their projections. BLS reports annual openings for the combined nurse anesthetist, nurse midwife, and nurse practitioner category rather than for NPs alone, at approximately 32,200 per year.
Should I get my NP now or wait? The case is strongest for nurses aged 25–40 in shortage specialties (psychiatric, primary care, geriatric) in full-practice-authority states. NP program enrollment has grown substantially, so the window of strong demand with limited supply is narrowing, particularly in urban FNP markets.
What nursing specialties are most in demand in 2025? At the RN level: ICU, ED, OR, labor-and-delivery, and psychiatric nursing. At the NP level: PMHNP, FNP in rural and underserved settings, geriatric NP. CRNA demand remains strong in rural independent-practice states.
Is travel nursing still worth it in 2025? Yes, for specialty-certified nurses in ICU, OR, ED, and L&D. Rates have moderated from 2021–2022 peaks but remain above staff RN rates in shortage markets. The value is strongest for nurses with 2+ years of experience and specialty certification.
Will AI replace nurses? Clinical nursing requires physical presence, clinical judgment, and therapeutic relationships that current AI does not replicate. The BLS projects continued strong growth for RN and NP roles through 2035 despite AI adoption in healthcare administration and documentation.
References
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Registered Nurses,” Occupational Outlook Handbook, Employment Projections 2025–2035 (released 27 August 2026, superseding the 2024–2034 round): 6% growth, 3,465,400 jobs in 2025, approximately 180,800 openings per year. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/registered-nurses.htm
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Nurse Anesthetists, Nurse Midwives, and Nurse Practitioners,” Occupational Outlook Handbook, Employment Projections 2025–2035 (released 27 August 2026, superseding the 2024–2034 round): 36% growth for the combined category, 399,000 jobs in 2025 rising to 543,000, approximately 32,200 openings per year, combined-category median $134,920 (May 2025). Nurse practitioners alone (SOC 29-1171) are projected to grow 41.0%, from 336,300 to 474,100. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/nurse-anesthetists-nurse-midwives-and-nurse-practitioners.htm
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS),” SOC 29-1141 (RN, median $97,550), 29-1171 (NP, median $132,300), 29-1151 (CRNA, median $236,590), 29-1161 (Nurse Midwives, median $134,040), May 2025, released 15 May 2026.
- Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), Bureau of Health Workforce, National Center for Health Workforce Analysis, “Nurse Workforce Projections, 2023–2038,” December 2025. Verified 5 September 2026 as HRSA’s current projection round, superseding the 2020–2035 round.
- Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), “Health Professional Shortage Areas (HPSA): Mental Health Designations,” 2025.
- American Association of Nurse Practitioners (AANP), “NP Fact Sheet” and state practice authority tracking, 2025.
- National Council of State Boards of Nursing (NCSBN), “Full Practice Authority and Nurse Licensure Compact status by state,” 2025.
- American Nurses Association (ANA), “Nurses in the Workforce” workforce and retirement data, 2024.